Wednesday, December 17, 2014

How did I make a 100% profit on Talisman Energy Inc. (NYSE:TLM)? What do I think is next?


I entered TLM at $3.78 for many reasons. Firstly, I was watching this stock for a while and thought I had bought it at the bottom. Unfortunately, as the day progressed I found out that I was wrong as the price started to drop until $3.49. I thought the stock was undervalued and was being sold based on bad news of oil prices falling. I also found out that billionaire Carl Icahn had positions averaging around $11 per share.

A few days later the stock moves up on news of a possible buyout. The price jumped from $3.70 to around $5 just based on rumors of a buyout. That shows you how much the media has an influence on the stock price of either going up or going down. Furthermore, once the public found out that it was Repsol that approached TLM again, the price started to decrease from around $5 at open to $4.27 by close. This is because Repsol approached TLM earlier during the year but no deal was reached. The next day the price was floating at $5, which was very tempting to sell knowing that the deal might not workout again. I was able to resist my urge to sell because I understood that this time the environment was different with declining oil prices forcing a deal is most likely. The following day I woke up and saw the stock trading at $7.50 on news that Repsol offered $8 US per share.


I think SandRidge Energy Inc (NYSE:SD) and Transocean LTD (NYSE:RIG) are undervalued and will easily move up quickly on positive news similar to TLM.        

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